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The Madison Avenue Field GuideA field guide to marketing & advertising, by Brandon Mina

GlossaryMeasurement & AttributionType I Error (False Positive)

Measurement & Attribution

Type I Error (False Positive)

Wrongly concluding a test variant had a real effect when the observed difference was due to chance.

By Brandon MinaCEO, BrandPilot AIUpdated November 2026

Short answer

A Type I error, or false positive, is wrongly concluding that a test variant had a real effect when the observed difference was actually due to chance. The significance level sets its expected rate; a 5% threshold accepts roughly a one in twenty chance under the null hypothesis. Practices like peeking increase it.