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The Madison Avenue Field GuideA field guide to marketing & advertising, by Brandon Mina

GlossaryMeasurement & AttributionCausal Inference

Measurement & Attribution

Causal Inference

Statistical methods used to determine whether marketing actually caused an outcome, rather than merely being correlated with it.

By Brandon MinaCEO, BrandPilot AIUpdated November 2026

Short answer

Causal inference is a set of statistical methods used to determine whether a marketing activity actually caused an outcome, rather than merely being correlated with it. Approaches include randomized experiments, difference-in-differences, synthetic controls, and regression discontinuity, helping marketers estimate true incremental impact and avoid crediting campaigns for sales that would have happened anyway.